While McCormick vs. Casey is the main event, races in Bucks and Delco will determine which party controls the U.S. and State House in November.
Presidential
Experts rate PA a tossup at the presidential level, but recent polling has Biden’s approval underwater and Trump leading by as much as 4 points in the state.
Biden is hoping for his Scranton roots, pro-democracy rhetoric, and anti-MAGA messaging to appeal to blue-collar and suburban voters near Philly. He also showed how important southeast Pennsylvania is to his reelection bid when he made his first stop post-State of the Union in Delco.
Trump, on the other hand, is hoping to capitalize on Biden’s unpopularity in the state, the unpopularity surrounding ‘Bidenomics’, and concerns over illegal immigration to propel him to the win. He has also shown his campaign’s emphasis on the state with a surprise visit to Sneaker Con in Philadelphia last month. The former President finds himself in a good polling position in Pennsylvania and, despite recent gains, he has even outraised Biden since the 2022 midterm elections.
If Biden is to win Pennsylvania, he’ll need to run up the score in Philadelphia and the collar counties. If Trump is to win Pennsylvania, he’ll need to stop the bleeding in Philadelphia while having a strong performance in Bucks. The rematch between Incumbent Joe Biden and former President Trump is shaping up to be a heavyweight bout sure to go the distance.
Cook Political Report 2024 Rating: Toss Up
Incumbent: President Joe Biden D – Since 2020
Statewide
The 2024 Senate race in Pennsylvania will be the most high-profile and expensive non-presidential race in PA, if not the country. The 2022 Senate race cost almost $375 million, and this year’s race could eclipse $500 million.
This year’s race pits three-term incumbent Senator Bob Casey against the presumptive Republican nominee David McCormick, who bills himself as a “7th-generation Pennsylvanian, combat veteran, and PA job creator who knows what it takes to get things done.”
Recent polling shows the incumbent Senator holding the edge, but with Biden deeply unpopular in the State, McCormick is surging. McCormick hopes by tying Casey to the unpopular President he can turn pivotal swing votes to his side.
“When Joe Biden says jump, Bob Casey asks how high. When Joe Biden says vote, Bob Casey says ‘which way?’ When Joe Biden comes calling, Bob Casey comes running. Bob Casey represents six more years of rubber stamps.” McCormick said in his announcement speech. This race will be closely watched locally and nationally and may determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Cook Political Report 2024 Rating: Lean Democrat
Incumbent: Senator Bob Casey Jr. D – since 2006
U.S. House
While six Congressional districts span Philadelphia and the collar counties, only one, the Republican-controlled swing 1st Congressional District, is the only non-safe rated district with intrigue.
The 1st Congressional District, which encompasses suburban Bucks County, is a traditional swing county and a constant target for Democrats. Despite being a district that Biden won by 6% in 2020, Congressman Fitzpatrick’s independent streak- he is the self-described most independent member of Congress and the vice chair of the Bipartisan Problem Solvers caucus – has earned him enduring popularity with his district’s swing voters.
The 4-term incumbent Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick is fending off a Republican primary challenge from local activist Mark Houck, while on the Democrat side, Ashley Ehasz is running unopposed.
Ehasz, a consultant, ran against Congressman Fitzpatrick in 2022 and lost her challenge by just shy of 10%. With the matchup looking to be a repeat of 2022, the Cook Political Report has this district rated as likely Republican.
Pennsylvania 1st Congressional District
Cook Political Report 2024 Rating: Likely Republican, EVEN
Incumbent: Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick R – since 2017
Pennsylvania Legislature
With Democrats holding a two-seat majority in the 203-seat State House, regionalized races will have statewide implications. Over the past three election cycles, Democrats have picked up 18 seats in the collar counties, and they are looking to pick up a few more while Republicans remain on defense.
Three races in Bucks – the neighboring Republican-controlled 18th and 142nd and the Democrat-controlled 144th – along with the Republican-controlled 160th in Delco make up the most intriguing battleground races this cycle.
The 18th district near Bensalem in Lower Bucks has been in Republican hands since the 1970s and is held by Representative K.C. Tomlinson – a funeral home operator and daughter of long-time State Senator Tommy Tomlinson. K.C. won reelection by 5 points in 2022 and will hope to defeat her Democrat challenger Anand Patel in 2024.
The 142nd is held by Republican Rep. and former congressional staffer Joseph Hogan, who won election to the Langhorne-area seat by just 72 votes in 2022. The 142nd is a top target for state Democrats, and Rep. Hogan will try to fend off Democrat Middletown Supervisor Anna Payne.
The Democrat-controlled 144th district based around Warminster in Bucks County, represents a rare pickup opportunity for Republicans in the collar counties. The 144th is held by first-term Rep. Brian Munroe who defeated incumbent F. Todd Polinchock by just 1.6% in 2022, giving Democrats control of this seat for the first time since the 1960s. Bucks County Republican Recorder of Deeds Daniel McPhillips has filed to run against Rep. Munroe, hoping to add this seat back to the GOP column.
Democrats are hoping they can pry away 160th in Delco, currently held by Republican Representative Craig Williams who has held the seat since 2020. Rep. Williams is a former prosecutor and retired United States Marine Corps pilot, who is currently running in the contested Republican primary for State Attorney General while also running for reelection to his house seat. Elizabeth Moro, a local realtor, is running for the seat on the Democrat side.
Pennsylvanians head to the polls for the 2024 primary election on April 23rd. The deadline to register to vote or update your voter registration to be eligible for the primary election is April 8th. To do so, or to apply for a mail-in ballot, head to PA Voter Services.
