The Cook Political Report provides independent, non-partisan analysis of the evolving electoral landscape.
Republican Dave McCormick is gaining traction in the race for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat, as the Cook Political Report has shifted its classification from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-Up.” This change highlights a competitive environment despite public polling that continues to show Democrat Bob Casey Jr. with a 3–5-point lead.
Casey has held a consistent lead throughout most of the election cycle, including double-digit leads in polls from various sources like the New York Times/Siena and Fox News. However, internal polling suggests a much tighter race, indicating that the contest is essentially a “margin-of-error” situation.
Recent surveys show Casey with an average lead of 5.3 percentage points since Labor Day, but an analysis of the latest polls from the PoliticsPA poll tracker indicates that McCormick has narrowed this deficit to an average of just 3.7 points.
According to the Cook Political Report, both parties’ internal polling indicates that McCormick is solidifying support among Republican voters and making notable gains in western Pennsylvania, particularly in Allegheny County and Pittsburgh, where he resides. These undecided voters tend to skew non-college-educated and may be influenced by concerns over inflation.
In response to these challenges, McCormick’s super PAC, Keystone Renewal, has launched an extensive advertising campaign portraying Casey as a career politician. The PAC has spent $30.7 million from July 1 to September 30, focusing on Casey’s voting record and rising grocery prices in Philadelphia.
Democrats have raised concerns about McCormick’s ties to Connecticut and his background as a hedge fund executive, attempting to question his local appeal. As the race enters its final stretch, Republicans have reserved $30.7 million for advertising, compared to $19.8 million for Democrats, reflecting their confidence in McCormick’s ability to close the gap.
