As Democrats face historic unfavorable ratings, the Trump coalition made major inroads into minority voters like African American men in Philadelphia.
President Donald Trump’s re-election victory stunned many pundits not for the win itself, but the dominating fashion in which he achieved it. Trump swept all battleground states, from the rust belt of Pennsylvania and Michigan to the Sun Belt state of Arizona.
In the Keystone state, changing voter registration trends are nothing new. According to one report, Trump’s victory—and the voter registration swing away from Democrats in the state—was part of a larger trend of Pennsylvanians eschewing both major parties, which some argue Trump’s campaign simply took advantage of. The same report states that while Democrat’s voter registration advantage is basically gone, Republicans won’t automatically benefit as third-party registration “had the most relative growth.”
But the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics argues Trump’s victory stems not entirely from Democrats switching to Republican voter registration, but by adding roughly 10% more voters to the voter rolls. The Center’s Nick Field said he “failed to properly appreciate…the influx of registrations that were growing the overall voter pool.” Fields also ascribed Republican gains in “deep blue and swing purple counties” like Philadelphia where the GOP increased their voter registration in the city by more than net 28,000 voters compared to Democrats.
Trump’s victory ushered in a new coalition, bringing larger percentages of minority voters than previous Republican campaigns into the Trump camp. 24% of African American men in Pennsylvania voted for Trump, up sharply from 2016 in which he garnered only 14%. Yet some argue the data shows Trump’s Sea change in Pennsylvania “fall[s] closer to the normal rates of change evident throughout recent history.”
For much of the 21st century, Democrats’ advantage in statewide politics eventually grew to its peak during the last years of the George W Bush administration, in which Democrats had a more than 1 million registered voter advantage over Republicans. Democrats parlayed that into a decisive victory for Barack Obama in 2008.
Fast forward to the Biden era during which PA Democratic voter registration experienced the largest drop in 25 years, and they are facing what could become a worst-case scenario. In the final months of the 2024 presidential campaign, it was evident that even with enthusiasm growing among Democrats after President Biden’s exit, Republicans were outpacing Democrats on voter registration.
That advantage for Republicans bore out in the highest voter turnout in 2024 since 1988 according to the Secretary of State’s office. Thirty-five of Pennsylvania’s counties saw voter turnout hit 80% or more during the last presidential election.
The trends in Pennsylvania may be part of a larger nationwide change in sentiment towards the Democratic Party. CNN polling released earlier this month shows the party’s favorability “among Americans stands at a record low.” Much of this discontent is coming from the party’s base, who are “no longer satisfied with the status quo” and could be “on the verge of a Tea Party-style” movement upending the party’s power structures.
