Trump pulls ahead of Biden in the race for the White House, while McCormick closes the gap on Senator Bob Casey.
Winning the presidency will be nearly impossible without winning Pennsylvania, and if Democrats hope to hold onto the Senate, incumbent Bob Casey must win reelection.
A new poll from Emerson College/The Hill shows Trump with a 4-point lead in Pennsylvania. When adding in third-party candidates including Independent RFK Jr., more support is pulled away from Biden, giving Trump a larger 5-point lead. Both leads are outside the poll’s margin of error.
Respondents to the Emerson poll were asked how a Trump guilty verdict would impact the likelihood of supporting him for president. Fifteen percent of Pennsylvania Republicans say they are less likely to support Trump, which was the highest percentage of the 7 swing states polled.
Last week, a Kaplan Strategies poll showed the former President with a 5-point lead, and a YouGov/CBS News poll had Trump with a 1-point lead over President Biden.
The YouGov/CBS News poll dove into voters’ feelings on multiple economic factors over time, with Trump holding an edge over Biden. Voters were asked to rate the state of the economy during the Trump presidency compared to now, with 61% of PA respondents rating the economy as ‘good’ under Trump compared to just 31% under Biden. 50% of PA voters also indicated they thought the economy has ‘gotten worse’ since COVID compared to 23% who think it has ‘gotten better.’
In the race for U.S. Senate, businessman Dave McCormick is recorded to be closing the gap against Democrat Bob Casey.
The Emerson College/The Hill poll, which is the only poll to have been conducted post-primary, has McCormick down 4 points, 42% – 46%, with 12% undecided. This same poll conducted pre-primary in February had McCormick down 39% – 49% with another 13% undecided.
The strong showing in the polls for McCormick follows a solid fundraising quarter with a reported $6.2 million in the first quarter of 2024. Casey raised $5.6 million in the first three months of 2024.
