Four highly competitive races could shape the balance of the U.S. House in next year’s midterm elections.
With Republicans holding a razor-thin majority in the U.S. House, four races in Pennsylvania could help determine whether the party maintains control after the 2026 elections. The GOP currently holds 219 seats to Democrats’ 213, with three seats vacant following the deaths of two Democrats and the resignation of one Republican. Pennsylvania’s 1st, 7th, 8th, and 10th congressional districts — all represented by Republicans — are now considered pivotal contests by national election analysts.
According to the Cook Political Report, Pennsylvania’s 7th and 10th districts are the most likely to flip to the Democrats, potentially costing Republicans two seats. The 7th District — which covers the Lehigh Valley — flipped to the GOP in 2024 with the election of Ryan Mackenzie. This year, Mackenzie is running unopposed in the Republican primary but is expected to face opposition in the general election. Ballotpedia lists at least four challengers for this seat: firefighter association members Bob Brooks and Ryan Crosswell, Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, and County executive Carol Obando-Derstine. Together, the five candidates have raised close to equal totals, with spending in the race already exceeding $1.5 million.
In the 10th district, Republican Rep. Scott Perry faces a reelection fight, after holding his seat in 2024 by one point. Perry, the former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, is expected to face a rematch against Janelle Stelson, the former TV news anchor who is the best-known candidate for Democrats in a fairly crowded 2026 field. Stelson received an endorsement from Gov. Josh Shapiro and is considered the favorite by the Cook report and Inside Elections. Perry faces challengers, including Republican staff attorney Karen Dalton.
While Pennsylvania is no stranger to national media attention — widely considered one of the three most important battleground states in the last three presidential elections — the 2026 cycle presents a uniquely crowded field. Republican performance in the commonwealth has steadily improved over the past decade, with 2024 marking one of the party’s strongest showings. President Trump carried Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes by a wider margin than most polls predicted, flipping a state President Biden won in 2020. In addition, long-serving Democrats Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild lost their seats, while Republicans outraised Democrats in Pennsylvania by several million dollars and outspent them by roughly $4 million.
Republicans also maintain a strong chance of holding their seats in 1st and 8th districts. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick – a self-described moderate who won a narrow victory in 2018 – improved his showing in 2024 by almost 10 points, despite the fact that the Bucks County area was one of the few where President Trump’s performance lagged projections. Sabato’s Crystal Ball projects the 1st district to stay Republican-controlled. In the 8th district, businessman Rob Bresnahan flipped the district in 2024, but faces allegations of improper financial dealings, which Bresnahan has repeatedly denied and has not led to any formal investigations. Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti announced her bid to challenge Bresnahan and has repeatedly criticized him over alleged ethics violations.
