WaPo Says PA Population Loss Due to Old Rural Residents Dying, But Is There More at Play?

While the Post points to a single town 75 miles outside of Erie, data shows the decline in Pennsylvania’s population is happening across the state and is the result of several factors.

In an essay report from The Washington Post’s Tim Craig, the argument is made that Pennsylvania’s population has shrunk over the years because of older people dying.

While Craig points out that 81% of rural counties in the United States have had more deaths than births between 2019 and 2023, economic forces are also considered. “I don’t know why the industry is not coming in. But I do know that is why people are moving out”, said Lonny Connolly, the manager of one of the town’s largest employers.

The data backs up Connolly’s sentiments. A report released in 2020 shows that Pennsylvania lost a third of its manufacturing jobs between 1999 and 2019, more than the roughly 25% national average.

The inability of Pennsylvania families to get ahead and remain mired in poverty is also linked to the expansion of federal regulations since 1997. The Mercatus Center from George Mason University studied the effects of regulations on the state, showing that as regulatory growth occurred, so did the number of Pennsylvanians living in poverty. Income inequality also rose in that same time span.

The Mercatus Report notes the “more than 166,000 regulatory restrictions” in Pennsylvania is 22% more than the U.S. average. Reducing regulations by 36% could add 180,000 jobs to the state or $9.2 billion to the state’s GDP in the first year alone, with compounding effects over time that could “substantially improve living standards.”

The Keystone State has been the subject of a flurry of articles in recent years on how many people are leaving the state and why. Moving and truck rental companies like United Van Lines and U-Haul release regular reports on where Americans are moving to and from. 2023’s report from United Van Lines showed Pennsylvania is among the top 10 states in terms of people leaving. Housing prices are among the top reasons for leaving Pennsylvania according to economist and professor Michael Stoll.

U-Haul’s latest report noted Florida cities take up more than a quarter of the top 25 destinations for those leaving a state behind while no Pennsylvania municipalities made the same list. In recent years, Florida has taken steps to strip regulations and red tape away on everything from wine bottles to public schools.

Job losses and population declines are not just a rural problem. Despite The Washington Post’s focus on rural Pennsylvania counties, Census data shows the bulk of the state’s population loss actually comes from counties Joe Biden won in 2020 according to an analysis from Franklin & Marshall College.